U.S. stocks traded higher and oil prices fell on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, after reports that Washington sent Tehran a 15-point Iran peace plan aimed at ending the monthlong war. The move added another swing to markets that have been reacting sharply to each new headline tied to the conflict and to the disruption of shipping in the Persian Gulf.
Reports about the Iran peace plan emerged Tuesday night and were confirmed by two regional sources and a U.S. official, according to the reference information provided. Investors interpreted the message as a sign the Trump administration is exploring an off-ramp, even as fighting and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue.
Iran peace plan headlines drive a risk-on session
Stock index futures initially jumped more than 1% after the Iran peace plan reports circulated. By late morning in New York, the S&P 500 was up about 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite was higher by about 0.8%, and the Dow was up roughly 270 points. Small-cap stocks also advanced, with the Russell 2000 up about 0.7%.
Oil moved the other way. U.S. crude fell more than 3% to around $89 per barrel late morning, while Brent crude slipped about 3% to around $101 per barrel. Heating oil, often treated as a proxy for jet fuel, fell about 4%. Even after the pullback, crude has remained elevated after weeks of disruption, with West Texas Intermediate still up more than 30% since the war began on Feb. 28 and up sharply for the year.
Analysts at Citi summed up the mood in a note that described how a single headline can swing both oil prices and Treasury yields in either direction. That pattern showed up again Wednesday, with early optimism about the Iran peace plan pushing stocks higher and energy prices lower.
Iran signals resistance, markets keep trading the uncertainty
The optimism was quickly tested. On Wednesday morning, Iranian media carried unconfirmed reports, citing an anonymous source, that Tehran would not accept a ceasefire or hold talks with the United States. Those reports briefly knocked index futures off their highs and lifted oil from its early lows.
The back-and-forth fits the rhythm markets have seen since Feb. 28, when prices surged on fears of supply loss, then retreated on any hint of de-escalation, only to jump again after new attacks, threats, or shipping disruptions. This time, the initial reaction leaned toward relief, but traders still treated the Iran peace plan as an early signal rather than a locked-in agreement.
“Uncertainty remains high,” ING analysts wrote in a Wednesday note cited in the reference information. They said volatility remains elevated and that a geopolitical risk premium persists, with tensions supporting higher prices and stoking inflation concerns. They also warned the environment could keep central banks cautious, delaying rate cuts.
UBS Global Wealth Management chief economist Paul Donovan made a similar point in his own note, saying markets were focusing heavily on the apparent Iran peace plan while also dealing with Iranian dismissals and the reality that passage through the Strait of Hormuz remained minimal.
