President Donald Trump signaled a sharp shift on Ukraine this week, saying Kyiv could regain all territory occupied by Russia.
In a Tuesday, September 23, 2025, social media post, he wrote, “I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and win all of Ukraine back in its original form.”
He added that with time, patience, and European financing, especially from NATO members, returning to the war’s original borders is “very much an option.”
The remarks mark a reversal from Trump’s early posture after returning to office, when he told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a February Oval Office meeting that Kyiv did not “have the cards” to defeat Russia and floated the idea of major concessions to end the war.
The new comments drew swift reactions across European capitals and from national security veterans who welcomed the message yet warned that Moscow will measure U.S. policy by actions, not words.
What Trump said, and why it matters
Trump’s post framed total territorial restoration as attainable if Europe sustains the bulk of material aid while the United States supports allied efforts.
He also mused that Ukraine might “maybe even go further,” a line that prompted clarifying pushback from Ukrainian officials who stressed they seek to liberate internationally recognized territory, not to occupy Russian land.
The change is significant because it signals the United States could align more closely with European governments that insist any settlement must respect Ukraine’s 1991 borders.
It also resets expectations ahead of allied debates on long-range strike permissions, sanctions enforcement, and air defense stockpiles, issues that have defined progress on the battlefield since early 2024.
Analysts split on the impact
Reactions from experts were mixed. Yuriy Sak, a former defense adviser to Zelenskyy, called the shift “dramatic” and argued it could translate into more unity inside the Western alliance and a steadier tempo of support for Kyiv. He said a unified front would increase pressure on Russia and reduce space for political hedging.
Others were more skeptical. Dan Hoffman, a former CIA Moscow station chief, said Vladimir Putin discounts rhetoric and responds only to hard power. In his view, Russia reads U.S. statements through a Kremlin lens that seeks opportunities to divide NATO and to test allied resolve with incremental provocations.
Hoffman pointed to recent Russian drone and fighter incursions over NATO territory and argued that those episodes show the alliance has more to do to reestablish deterrence.
Russia pushes back, the battlefield stays static
The Kremlin dismissed Trump’s optimism. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, that Trump was “mistaken,” saying that “the dynamics on the front lines speak for themselves.”
Independent military maps show few large territorial changes since early 2024. There have been local advances and daily artillery exchanges, yet the front has remained largely static for roughly 18 months.
That stalemate reflects several constraints, including ammunition production bottlenecks, layered air defenses, and limits on deep-strike authorities imposed to manage escalation risk. It also reflects Russia’s ability to reconstitute losses and to keep pressure on Ukraine’s energy grid and logistics nodes with missiles and drones.
What critics say would change Moscow’s calculus
Skeptics argued the administration should translate the new rhetoric into steps that raise costs for Russia immediately.
Proposals included lifting all strike restrictions that bar the use of Western weapons against military targets deeper inside Russia, enforcing secondary sanctions on banks and shippers that enable sanctions evasion, and tightening oil revenue flows by pushing allies to close maritime loopholes.
Hoffman urged Washington to press Germany to supply long-range missiles, to encourage Denmark to close the Danish Straits to the “shadow fleet” carrying Russian crude, and to lean on partners such as Hungary to curb purchases of Russian oil.
He said a coordinated package on these fronts would shape decisions in the Kremlin faster than statements or future pledges.
How Kyiv and Baltic officials read the shift
From Kyiv, Sak welcomed the change in tone, calling it a “confirmation” that the United States now backs Ukraine’s objective to restore internationally recognized borders alongside the NATO alliance. He underscored that Ukraine does not seek to seize Russian territory.
“We have never had the ambition to conquer Russian territory,” he said, adding that liberating occupied areas will require a mix of military and diplomatic tools over time.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė called the reversal “very encouraging.” She said Ukraine has both the right and the chance to return to its legal borders with full allied support.
At the same time, she echoed calls for additional U.S. and NATO assistance, warning that insufficient backing would embolden Russia and raise the risk of a wider war in Europe.
Šakalienė cited a series of drone incidents and fighter jet incursions across Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, and other points along NATO’s northeastern flank as evidence that Moscow is “coloring outside the lines.” In her view, Russia tests boundaries when it believes it is unpunishable, which is why clear, enforced red lines and sustained resupply are essential.
